Bitcoin (BTC) Starts Thanksgiving Week with a Return to $37,000

Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off Thanksgiving week in the United States with a return to $37,000 as bulls stubbornly refuse to loosen their grip. BTC price action remains tantalizingly near 18-month highs as another weekly close provides a fresh taste of bull market momentum. The largest cryptocurrency continues to hold onto reclaimed ground, and while upside has been slower than in previous weeks, BTC/USD is up 7% month-to-date.

Macroeconomic data prints provide the opportunity for some snap volatility, while under the hood, the landscape when it comes to Bitcoin’s network fundamentals is as rosy as it has ever been in 2023. At the same time, supply dynamics are surprising — coins dormant for a year or more now make up over 70% of the supply for the first time, indicating a reluctance among long-term holders to “sell the rip.” Bitcoin dominance is also staying strong, leading to hopes that a classic crypto bull market is once again in its early innings.

Bitcoin Traders Maintain BTC Price Retracement Odds

Bitcoin delivered a suitably buoyant weekly close with a trip to $37,500, but subsequently failed to hold that level. In an ongoing expression of the difficulty of reclaiming higher ground as support, BTC price action is now back around the $37,000 mark as of Nov. 20, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

“Considerable supply above price & towards $40K,” popular trader Skew noted in part of his latest social media analysis. “This will take persistent demand for spot BTC to crack imo. Bullish confirmation is seeing limit bids move up closer to price here, that would signal for higher prices & demand.”

Bitcoin traders are anticipating a retracement to test recent liquidity, with downside targets including a trip to $33,000 and even below $31,000. Bitcoin market data shows a much calmer atmosphere among traders compared to the initial push to 18-month highs last week, with open interest (OI) and funding rates staying neutral.

Jobs, Fed Minutes Lead Short Thanksgiving Macro Week

U.S. Thanksgiving week is due to be characterized by a cool set of macroeconomic data releases in a period of relief for crypto traders. Jobless claims mark one of the highlights of the coming days, set for release on Nov. 22.

Bitcoin has become less susceptible to macro-induced volatility this year, but unemployment surprises have still injected short-term momentum in the past. Market participants are currently in “wait and see mode” ahead of the next decision on interest rate changes due in mid-December. So far, consensus is practically unanimous on current levels remaining in place at the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

The Fed will release the minutes of its previous FOMC meeting this week.

Analysis Concerned Over Bitcoin Mining Boom

Bitcoin network fundamentals remain at or near all-time highs, with hash rate and mining difficulty in full bull mode. However, there are warning signs that a BTC price comedown may be on the horizon. In his latest market update, contributor Gigisulivan noted that new hash rate highs have traditionally preceded a BTC price drop. There is still time for history to repeat itself, potentially leading to a return toward the $30,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s next automated difficulty readjustment is scheduled for Nov. 25 and is currently expected to take difficulty only modestly higher, by around 2%.

Dominance Fuels Hopes of Classic Bull Market

Bitcoin dominance is currently around 52.5% of the total crypto market cap. While this is 2% lower than at the start of the month, it is still higher than its year-to-date lows. This surge in dominance characterizes the early stages of a crypto bull market. Bitcoin traditionally advances prior to major altcoins, with small-cap tokens bringing up the rear as excitement over price gains permeates crypto markets.

Supply Dormancy Sets New Record

A bullish chart indicating long-term holder resolve to hodl beyond immediate price action is the percentage of mined BTC that has not moved in at least a year. This metric has now hit an all-time high, with dormant coins making up over 70% of the supply for the first time. This indicates a reluctance among long-term holders to sell their BTC.

As Bitcoin starts Thanksgiving week with a return to $37,000, traders are maintaining BTC price retracement odds. The macroeconomic data releases and Bitcoin network fundamentals will play a significant role in shaping the coming days for Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance and supply dynamics also fuel hopes of a classic crypto bull market.