Spot Bitcoin ETF Expected in the US by Q2 2024, Says Hashdex
Hashdex, one of the 13 asset managers vying for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), anticipates that the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States will launch by the second quarter of 2024, followed by a spot Ether ETF.
“The exact timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains unclear, but in 2023, the narrative around this product switched from a question of ‘if’ to a matter of ‘when’,” said Hashdex’s U.S. and Europe head of product, Dramane Meite, in a 2024 outlook report published on December 4. “We believe U.S. investors will have access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the new year and that a spot Ether ETF is likely to follow.”
Hashdex is one of the 13 asset managers with a spot Bitcoin ETF bid before the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It has also pitched a hybrid Ether ETF that holds both futures and spot contracts to the same regulator.
Timeline for Approval
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated a 90% chance of spot Bitcoin ETFs being approved in the days leading up to January 10, 2024. However, Seyffart clarified that this only refers to the 19b-4 applications, and a separate form known as the “S-1” must also be approved for an ETF to launch.
Seyffart previously noted that there could be weeks or even months between approval and launch.
Companies use the S-1 form to inform the SEC of proposed rule changes and require sign-off from the agency’s Division of Corporation Finance.
New Opportunities in the Market
In Hashdex’s report, Meite stated that spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs would pave the way for “legacy asset managers with thousands of staff and trusted brands” to offer their customers a crypto product for the first time.
He believed this development would unlock a $50 trillion market, which is larger than the combined markets of Europe, Canada, and Brazil — the only three global markets with spot crypto exchange-traded products.
Meite also anticipated that most of the interest in single-asset ETFs would be focused on Bitcoin and Ether, due to their name recognition and little differentiation among incumbents.