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Unleashing the Bulls: 3 Metrics DeFi Traders Must Monitor to Predict the Next Crypto Surge

A Closer Look at the DeFi Market: Metrics, Opportunities, and Challenges

The decentralized finance (DeFi) market, beyond Bitcoin (BTC), has been an exciting and unpredictable arena within the cryptocurrency sector. The year 2020 witnessed an unprecedented bull market in the DeFi sector, as the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance protocols surged from a modest $1 billion to a staggering $100 billion. Yet, volatility is the companion of growth – in 2021, the DeFi market experienced a hefty correction, as the TVL plummeted to $40 billion.

Understanding the Volatility of the DeFi Market

It seems that changes in the DeFi market can be abrupt and significant. Nonetheless, there are certain indicators that could provide traders with crucial insights about when this niche crypto sector would show sustained bullish momentum. The key metrics to pay attention to include TVL, a platform’s fee revenue, and the number of non-zero wallets holding tokens.

TVL: A Measure of DeFi Health

TVL stands as one of the most critical measurements of the overall state of the DeFi ecosystem. Representing the total amount of cryptocurrency assets locked into DeFi protocols, a rise in TVL suggests a growing demand and use of DeFi services – a possible indicator of a bull market. For instance, despite its current value remaining a bit below the peak of $52.9 billion seen in April 2023, the TVL has been on an upward trend since the beginning of the year, surpassing $45 billion after starting at $38 billion.

The Link Between Fee Revenue and Interest

Protocol fees—representing the revenue received by blockchains for completing transactions—are a significant metric to monitor. The rise in these fees points towards an increasing interest in DeFi, suggesting that traders are more frequently using decentralized applications (DApps) to interact with blockchains. Remarkably, the past 30 days have seen an increase in fees across the top 16 layer-1 blockchains in terms of market cap, with Ether (ETH) racking up an annualized figure of over $2.2 billion.

Non-Zero Wallet Addresses Indicate Active Participation

Another insightful parameter is the number of non-zero wallet addresses. An increase in these addresses is a strong sign of more people actively participating in crypto. This can signify growing demand and the approach of a bull market. Specifically focusing on DeFi tokens, there was a notable hike to an all-time high of 1.1 million non-zero addresses on November 8th.

The Unpredictable Yet Evolving DeFi Market

The DeFi market, while continuing to show signs of growth and evolution since the Terra Luna incident, remains fraught with volatility. Therefore, it is imperative for investors to carefully monitor on-chain metrics and other broad factors that can help identify the early signs of a bull market. By keeping an eye on these dynamics, traders can more effectively gauge the DeFi market’s health and spot the emergence of a potential bull market sooner.

Please note: this article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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